The Evolution of Georgia-Russia Relations (2003-2008): a SWOT Analysis of Geopolitical Tensions, Economic Pressures and Strategic Opportunities

This article examines the evolution of relations between Georgia and the Russian Federation, particularly in the period leading up to the "Five-Day" War, which significantly changed the dynamics of relations between the two nations. Focusing on the period following Georgia's Rose Revolution in 2003, the study analyzes the changing nature of bilateral relations, the influencing factors and challenges faced by both sides amid changing geopolitical developments. The purpose of the study is to understand how Georgia navigated the complex geopolitical landscape, balancing its aspirations for NATO and EU membership with its ongoing territorial disputes with Russia. The central research question is: How did Georgia’s foreign policy during 2003-2008 address its geopolitical vulnerabilities and opportunities in the face of Russian opposition? The study applies a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) methodology to evaluate Georgia’s foreign policy decisions in this critical period, considering both internal and external factors. The findings highlight the strategic importance of Georgia’s geographic location and political reforms but also reveal significant vulnerabilities, including unresolved territorial conflicts and dependence on Western support without formal security guarantees. The conclusion emphasizes that while Georgia sought to leverage its democratic reforms and geopolitical significance, it remained constrained by the power dynamics of the region, particularly Russia’s influence, which culminated in the 2008 Russo-Georgian War. This analysis provides insights into the complexities of small states navigating regional power structures and the importance of strategic diplomacy and military readiness.